How to get out of the dead cycle in the hottest fu

How can the fuel cell market get out of the dead cycle

recently, the "2017 (Wuhan) fuel cell technology and Industrial Development Summit Forum" ended in Wuhan. At the forum, relevant principals from R & D and production enterprises of hydrogen energy, fuel cells and parts launched in-depth discussions on relevant topics. This forum is "no clich é, only dry goods". In a word, it is about the current cycle dilemma of fuel cells

causal effect: fuel cells encounter a circular dilemma

the development of fuel cells in the past two years is obvious to all, and the industrial chain is gradually improving. However, it is undeniable that the whole industrial chain is still seeking a breakthrough in a circular dilemma

this dilemma can be described as:

Customer: if the product price is not competitive and the fuel supply is not sufficient, they will not buy the products carried by the fuel cell

fuel cell Enterprises: when fuel cells cannot be produced in large quantities, it is not easy to reduce costs

oem: fuel is supplied in a large range, and large-scale production will be carried out only when customers are willing to purchase

fuel suppliers: when fuel cell applications are not accepted and there is no large-scale commercialization, it is impossible to supply fuel on a large scale

such a series of links are linked, and the upstream and downstream interact and cause and effect each other. A breakthrough in a field requires the upstream or downstream to provide conditions. For example, the construction of hydrogen refueling stations is affected by the downstream market. Professor lijianqiu, deputy director of the Department of automotive engineering of Tsinghua University, once introduced to the author that a hydrogen refueling station that injects 200 kilograms of hydrogen a day currently requires about 10million yuan (excluding land costs). If we want to support a 70 MPa hydrogen refueling station, the cost will be higher

in this way, even with state subsidies, the cost is still not low. If downstream users do not accept fuel cell products, when can the operator of the hydrogen refueling station get back? The number of hydrogen refueling stations is small, and downstream users are unwilling to purchase fuel cell products, which will also affect fuel cell manufacturers and component manufacturers

capital test: is the best window to intervene in the field of fuel cells up

shaozhigang, director of the fuel cell research department of Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the prospect of fuel cell power generation is certainly right, and the general trend is the same, but if enterprises can persist, when to make money cannot be given a specific time point

Chaozhou Sanhuan Group Co., Ltd. is an enterprise focusing on the research and development and production of advanced materials. In 2004, the company cooperated with Bloom energy, a leading enterprise of solid oxide fuel cells in the United States. So far, six generations of technology have been upgraded, and the sintering density and conductivity have been close to the theoretical value. In 2016, the output of this product was about 200MW, and the revenue was about 300million yuan. In 2017, the company has used more than 1million batteries on clients. Chen Shuoshuo, vice president of the Research Institute of the company, said: "we didn't actually make a lot of money. We invested for eight years from 2004 to 2012. Sometimes the investment in a year is as high as ten or twenty million. If we didn't insist on the previous eight years, it's estimated that we won't make money." Between the lines, the company is still profitable

Anglo American platinum industry is the world's leading producer of platinum group metals. One of the company's key areas of concern is the industrial demand for platinum group metals, especially accelerating the application and popularization of fuel cells. Sunguojiang, general manager of precious metals marketing and development in Asia Pacific region of Anglo American platinum Marketing Co., Ltd., said that the company had established a China fund to devote itself to equity investment related to fuel cells and hydrogen energy, and was looking for partners in the hydrogen station construction industry

the author found that among the foreign fuel cell enterprises that have invested in the British and American platinum industry, Ballard Power Systems, a leader in the hydrogen fuel cell industry, has been developing fuel cells since 1983. At present, its main business is the design, development, manufacturing and service of proton exchange membrane fuel cell products

back to the question at the beginning: has the best time come for capital to intervene in the fuel cell field? Answer with a sentence with the taste of "chicken soup" - capital should keep its keen sense of smell while being cautious. Is the opportunity that everyone can see still called business opportunity

market performance: fuel cells still need efforts

in recent years, fuel cell terminal products have been gradually promoted, but due to the popularity of fuel supply facilities such as hydrogen refueling stations and related knowledge, the application of fuel cells in market terminals has not been widely popularized

in 2015, SAIC launched Roewe 750e fuel cell vehicle with a endurance of 400 kilometers and "no pollution, zero emission"

in 2016, Foton Automobile Group launched the 12 meter and 8.5 meter fuel cell buses of OUHUI series, and Foton automobile, together with Tsinghua University and Beijing yihuatong Technology Co., Ltd., developed fuel cell vehicles and supporting equipment with core technology

in April 2017, during the Shanghai auto show, Foton ohui fuel cell bus was officially launched and sold, and received batch orders

on June 2, xiongtao Co., Ltd. announced that the joint-stock company Beijing Hepu chuanneng Technology Co., Ltd. and Guoda Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. signed an order for 500 sets of 30kW automotive fuel cell stacks with a value of 120million yuan, and planned to deliver and load them successively before the end of 2017. These fuel cell stacks will be installed on fuel cell buses and logistics vehicles developed by Hepu in cooperation with many first-class vehicle manufacturers in China, And it operates in bus lines and logistics parks in many places

in August 2017, the first hydrogen fuel cell engine in Zhangjiakou base of Beijing yihuatong Technology Co., Ltd. was officially rolled off the production line, and the design capacity of the first production line of the base is 2000 units/year, which will strongly promote the downstream fuel cell passenger cars

however, according to industry insiders, there are not many enterprises that can mass produce fuel cell buses. For example, the more mature SAIC Shenwo fuel cell bus has not yet started the trial production of some single units of our key equipment; The fastest mass production of Yutong fuel cell bus may be extended to 2020

taking the recommended catalogue of the eighth batch of new energy vehicles recently released by the Ministry of industry and information technology as an example, only three fuel cell buses were selected in this batch, which accounts for a very small proportion of all 273 models in this batch. Although the recommended catalogue is not equal to the final market sales, it is also a factor of market sales. If there are no models included in the recommended catalogue, how can we occupy the market

from the perspective of actual development, fuel cells are easier to open up in short-distance mobile terminal products such as UAVs and forklifts. The global fuel cell forklift market is about US $30billion. Du bin, global purchasing director of plug power, said that forklifts are large enough. This company currently accounts for about 95% of the fuel cell forklift market. This market is quite considerable, and fuel cells can still do something in the market segment

the way to break the situation: fuel cells need "comprehensive treatment"

the circular dilemma encountered by fuel cells may lead to a comprehensive "comprehensive treatment":

(1) the introduction of third-party finance. Li Xiao, general manager of Wuhan Zhongyu Power System Technology Co., Ltd., believes that to break the dilemma encountered by fuel cells, we can try to introduce third-party finance, but he emphasizes that the products must be mature enough, because the success of all business models must be based on mature products. If the hardware products are not mature, any business model will not succeed

(2) design for manufacturing. Li Xiao has a point worth thinking about. He believes that parts should be designed for manufacturing, rather than unilaterally pursuing the improvement of index performance, that is, all parts must be produced in a way that meets cost expectations; Integrated design to reduce the number of parts and assembly costs. His view of "design for manufacturing" is to reduce production costs. The author believes that it is very necessary at this stage of fuel cells. After all, living is more important than having face, but with the development of the industry, product performance indicators will attract attention

(3) standardization of non end products. As the convener of IEC international standards, Qi Zhigang sorted out 59 fuel cell related standards that can be searched in China. He said that this number should be the largest in the world. The author believes that this is a good thing and needs to be improved. Non terminal products such as fuel cell components should be standardized. Too many degrees of freedom will bring chaos to the production of fuel cells, and also bring costs to production and enterprise docking

(4) strengthen policy support. The fuel cell industry costs a lot of money and has a high threshold. As the industry generally calls for, both national and local levels need to increase support. For example, the implementation of a demonstration model similar to the original "ten cities and a thousand vehicles" of electric vehicles. Academician Yi Baolian delivered a speech recently. He believed that the large-scale demonstration operation of fuel cells was the eve of commercialization. However, he pointed out that to achieve large-scale demonstration operation, four conditions are required, namely (1) the durability and reliability of fuel cells meet the basic requirements; (2) The selling price of the whole vehicle is close to that of lithium battery vehicles or fuel vehicles after deducting government subsidies; (3) There is sufficient cheap fuel supply to eliminate or alleviate hydrogenation anxiety; (4) Including government subsidies, fuel cell manufacturers and fuel cell vehicle operators should make profits. Can these four conditions be achieved? The author believes that it is enough, so the small-scale demonstration operation may be more practical. Therefore, the support of the government composite materials to constantly push through the old and bring forth the new government is very valuable

in essence, the cycle dilemma encountered by fuel cells has also been encountered by electric vehicles in the past, and even now, electric vehicles are still struggling to break through this dilemma. The way to break the fuel cell dilemma lies not only in the efforts of the industry, but also in the support of policies, because the baton of the government has magical magic, which is like a catalyst for the industry. You know